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Why NY and not just NYC would be a unique, interesting, and fun FO5 setting
To start, this should be a single player game. If Bethesda/Obsidian/MS can make it so I can play with 1 or 2 friends, I want that but understand it's not that simple. So why it should be picked: First, NY has an amazing history when it comes to Pre-Revolution, Revolution, the Civil War, and beyond. Major events like the battle at Saratoga (which is considered the turning point of the Revolution), the 1980 Miracle on Ice, and Woodstock (along with a whole lot more) all took place in upstate NY. So the rich history of the area is ripe for pro American stylizing and propaganda that gives FO it's unique take on American Atom-punk. That along with more modern history of things like the Native Americans (The Oneidas) actually taking back their land and forming their own sovereign nation (basically they have their own gov. Pay no state taxes, and self govern with police, fire, and allow gambling which NY does not). So their modern government would not only be some great lore, but I honestly believe could be a basis for the main quest line. Things like their unique tribal leadership, philosophy, and gambling (hello 10 luck) could bring a very grey area to fallout that was kind of missed in FO3 + 4. Plus their mythology would make for a great weird scene that fallout has at least 1 of every game. Also, for those who don't know, upstate NY is very country with major cities pocketed about. (Utica, Albany, Syracuse, etc). So if you liked NV style of wandering the wastes, or 3s style of city wandering, we've got both. Also, we've got two mountains areas, one in the Adirondacks and the Catskills are the other. That said, one of the most important parts of fallout are the locations. Where can we go? For that I have a list: Major locations: Lake Placid Winter Olympics training facility - the winter olympics world be held in 2078 and if they still exist by then and to play into the game, LP could be the location of those games. Again, the miracle on ice where American Amateurs bested the Communist Russian Pros, was held there. The "Better dead than Red" sentiment would be full force. Not to mention one of a few great locations for a possible vault (80, in this case to house winter olympians). Plus, the weapons could be cool too. Hockey sticks, hockey skate blades on gloves, a goalie mask for armor, you name it. Cooperstown Baseball HOF - Now when you think Americana, Baseball is one of your first thoughts, don't lie. Cooperstown is baseball central and very pretty. Another great place for pro-american styles and fun gear like baseball base mines, softball helmets (because fuck you "A League of Their Own" style pro-baseball league in FO sounds awesome), and of course bats and baseball grenades. Also a baseball Vault (Vault 4, 5, 7, or 9). Not my idea, but in this vault, there's 32 teams of mens and 32 teams of womens baseball (or coed teams, idk), all of whom are pro players. Vault tec test is simple, winner gets food and drinks, loser gets steroid infused food and drink (but they don't know it has steroids obviously). The idea is, test how good at baseball people can be if given monster amounts of steroids for generations. I'll make a separate post about this in detail if desired. Canastota Boxing HOF - Another unique area for America. Canastota is pretty boring and empty, but for those of you old enough to remember Rocky when it came out, it basically revived Boxing as a major sport and also had a moment where America bested the Red Menace (Rocky IV). Maybe a spot for a vault or to learn unique unarmed moves. Pugilism Illustrated anyone? Albany - NYs capital and an easy big city area along the Hudson. A great location for corporate greed, governmental corruption, and side quests. Can't say it'll be the focal point of the game since its very near the eastern border of it, but a good location for exploring and lore. Buffalo/Niagara Falls - Ya ever gone over the falls in a barrel? Do ya want to? I think using Niagara Falls (which has an American and Canadian side, Canadas is the U-shaped famous one) as Fallouts first "Non-American" location would be fun. First, the falls are beautiful and are a major source of hydroelectric power. Second, in FO, America annexed canada, so it's technically still America! Third, right across the "border" are casinos! More gambling! Third and a half, it's another big city and buffalo is where the buffalo wing was invented (God bless buffalo wings). Besides the cool lore opportunity about the annexation and the city location, the falls could be a major location for the story if the main conflict was about powering the area, similar to NV. Syracuse - NYs (literal) center city. The Salt City as it was formally known is a big city with some great old and new style. Again, not much about the city to say, but a great opportunity for corporate BS. The main attraction would be the Syracuse Dome (formerly the Carrier Dome). Due to its location and style, it's perfect as a central trading hub for the major cities and people. Think of Great Green Jewel style, people living, bars, shops, etc. BUT the really interesting part is what's right next to the Dome. SUNY ESF (Environmental Science and Forestry). This college is special because (A. I went there) it has very unique programs and with some future tech thrown in, could be a great location for a Fallout 3 Harold or NV vault 22-esq quest. The college already does experiments with major chemicals, evolution (FEV anyone?) and breeding plants for unique purposes. Again, I have a really cool idea for this area, but that can be a different post. Fun fact, ESF is actually working to bring back the North America Chestnut that went (nearly) extinct! Also, some asshole releases the fruit flies the genetics lab work with every year and it sucks. NYC (Empire, 9/11 memorial, Statue of Liberty) - Yeah yeah, you can't have NY without the City, but frankly there's so much here to explore and deal with, I'd leave it to the pros to really do it justice. Turning Stone Casino - Gambling, a hotel/restaurants like in NV, and a good spot for the main quest line. Fort Stanwix - A real revolutionary war fort. HQ or major area for raiders. Safe, well protected and with plenty of history. Fort Drum and Griffis Air Force Base: Two major bases that could be packed with guns, nukes, and power armor. Heavily guarded by turrets, robots, and security gates. Main Quest: Without too much detail, I figure your character will be hired to figure out the future of NY. You'll be brought to the Turning Stone which is currently the HQ of the Oneida tribe. Your job would be to either work with the other tribes in the former Iroquois Confederation (Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Oneida, Mohawk, and Tuscarora [added later]). (Quick note: in my AU, some time after the bombs fell, the IC came to power because of their knowledge of living off the land and attempted to rebuild society. After some time rebuilding and establishing a post-war society, the tribes do the thing all humans do and bicker. Around 2200 the IC broke apart but the tribes retained power in their areas. They fight, trade, yadda yadda but no one is in control of everything. Throughout your quest, it turns out that what is holding everyone back is a lack of power for things like lights and running water. Your job will be to determine where to get that power (Nuclear power plant in Oswego or the falls in Niagara?) And where to give it (one tribe? A few? Or all?). But that's not all, the tribes can't decide who should be in charge. One tribe wants to remain independent, don't help the outsiders and rebuild society in their image within NY, another wants to help others but would need to sacrifice their own people's safety and seclusion. Maybe another wants to be imperialist and expand their borders throughout America through way of force and fear while another agrees with taking land but wants it done through offers of protection for taxes. And each tribe has its own opinion on bringing the IC back together, staying separate, or taking over the tribes for themselves. It's up to you character to decide who to help. Do you work hard to try and bring all tribes together under one banner or choose a side and execute their will as a paid mercenary/ambassador? Other choices would be chaos by siding with raiders, or maybe a BOS path to take out all the tribes, idk, haven't thought it all out. Again, not a writer. Mechanics: So personally, I like the idea that if you choose to go with a single faction, there would a battle/war mechanic where you and an army (or alone if you really wanna try) take over and lay claim to areas similar to Nuka World where you fly the gangs flag. Nothing complicated, normal fallout fights, don't die and kill the leadehis troops to win. Karma is back. You will garner good or bad rep with each tribe depending on what you do. I'd like an armor system like in NV but I can live without it. There is an ending. Once you beat the game you can continue doing side quests for armoexperience/ammo but only for the tribes left in power. Occasional rebellions will rise up as random events that need to be put down. Settlements are limited. Like skyrim, but a plot and build. No need to build one everywhere and you don't even need to do it if you don't want to. Radio host? Gimme a Mr. New Vegas type guy. I don't want an eccentric 3-dog, I want a smoothed voiced person wishing me lady like luck. Also, smarter AI. Otherwise, typical FO mechanics. Weapons degrade, can upgrade weapons and armor, etc. Main problems with NY: No real borders to the south. Invisible walls would like be necessary which is stupid. Same to the East, but the Hudson could theoretically be used as a border if you put crazy strong mirelurks or something to kill the player if they tried to cross (or more invisible walls) Don't want to disrespect the tribes. This is an issue with using each tribe as a possible faction. You're bound to piss off or disrespect one. So it'll be a task to make sure it's as limited as possible. What to do with the city? It's a huge area that can be used for so much, but as a part of NY it's actually pretty seperated. It's a commercial hub now, but there's nothing there that would really be a reason to go down there. So do you make it one or do we just make it a glowing sea type area that's completely decimated from the bombs? That's my personal choice honestly, but it's a tough one to please as many as possible. Conclusion: NY is rad. I'll be taking questions as long as they do not involve Canadian trivia. Thank you.
Here on a Sunday night to give you autists some time to cross-check my info, start your RH instant deposit, and let your wife's bf know you're coming back with a vengeance. Here's an in-depth analysis on DraftKings and how to maximize profits over the foreseeable future to squeeze this for every tendie we can. Now that many states face revenue shortfalls due to the coronavirus pandemic and wider budget deficits, there needs to be a push to fill that gap and nothing is better positioned than sports betting. As you all know, $DKNG came to market through a SPAC merging with Diamond Eagle back in April, at the worst of the pandemic when live sports were dead and there was more uncertainty than ever for what was to come. Jason Robins, Draft Kings CEO, has balls of steel and knew that they needed to get to market quickly for a sports betting run-up the likes of which we've never seen. Sports are now on their way back, with a huge amount of positive catalysts coming up in the next few months to skyrocket this stock to the moon and beyond.
I want to clarify that a large amount of my conviction from this play comes from the incredible management team leading the company. CEO Jason Robins is a stand-up guy and has led the company through a huge amount of scrutiny since its founding in 2012. He comes from a data analytics background which could not be a better fit for the sports betting business. He prioritizes the high speed data that fuels the DraftKings platform as its most valuable asset and speaks often on the commitment his team has to ethical values and encouraging a trustworthy environment for its users to gamble their paychecks on the DraftKings platform. I've linked a great interview to get to know the CEO and give further insight into DraftKing's plans moving forward below and highly recommend anyone going in on this play give it a quick watch. Jason is optimistic about the future of state's legalizing mobile sports betting moving forward and says they will continue to invest boatloads of money into customer acquisition costs through TV ads and billboards on a state-by-state basis. Link: https://youtu.be/2OVFB9piEC0 Any of you who have come across DraftKings commercials, YouTube ads, billboards, know that their marketing is on point. This is a great play because DraftKing's expansion has occurred thus far on a state-by-state basis. This means that there's a large part of the nation (actually the majority) that is still ignorant to the sports betting wave that is coming in 2021. DraftKings is positioned extremely well to lead the way into the ~25 states still waiting to pass the bill.
The fact that the top 4 states in the country still have not legalized online sports betting presents a HUGE opportunity to ride this wave with little downside risk. Sports have already gone through the worst-case scenario during COVID shutdowns and survived—now we’ve got a great amount of positive catalysts coming up (NBA season, March madness, Super Bowl, etc.) that the general population is begging for some action on, paired with more money in their pocket from significantly less entertainment costs since the pandemic started. The Wuhan Virus gave DraftKings a shot in the arm to streamline its way into most (if not all) of the remaining state's ballots during Q1 and Q2 due to the huge cut in tax revenues that the lockdowns caused across the country. Governor Cuomo of New York released a statement last week stating he is now considering the passing of mobile sports betting in order to raise the state's tax revenue during a time where Congress completely skipped them over in terms of providing aid through the stimmy. New York is a huge catalyst moving forward. In my opinion, this is a make or break for how things look for DraftKings moving forward, and will largely influence how other states react. Mobile sports betting scares states as it is new and so accessible, but if you do research into the Powerball and other loterry companies, it just took a push in the right direction for states to realize how much money they are leaving on the table by not participating in these emerging markets. Sports betting has already benefited the 9 states which passed the bill (NJ leading the way) and has NY as well as every other governor, feeling major FOMO. Current states where online (mobile) sports betting laws have passed:
Legislation aside, the other huge catalyst is DraftKing's unique approach to owning its own data and proprietary tech stack. I believe that this will be where DKNG separates itself from the competition that is rushing to this space and will give it the upper hand in acquiring, and retaining, a large percentage of new users across opening states. From investor presentation:"Upon close of the business combination, DraftKings will become the only vertically-integrated pure-play sports betting and online gaming company based in the United States. Through the business combination, DraftKings expects to realize synergies by transitioning its risk and trading sports betting platform to SBTech’s, instead of relying on a third-party platform. In addition to reducing costs, DraftKings will control its backend system and product roadmap, differentiating the company from other U.S. operators and giving it the ability to tailor its sports betting product to U.S. sports and users." "SBTech is a global leader in omni-channel sports betting and gaming, with more than 1,200 employees in 10 offices worldwide. Since 2007, the group has developed the industry’s most powerful online sports betting and casino platform, serving licensees in more than 15 regulated territories. SBTech’s clients include many of the world’s premier betting and gaming operators, state lotteries, land-based casinos, horse racing companies, and iGaming start-ups. The group supplies highly flexible betting and gaming solutions to clients looking for exceptional configurability and the quickest route to market, complemented by proven business intelligence and reporting capabilities. The SBTech offering includes its seamless sportsbook, Chameleon360 iGaming platform, managed services, on-property sportsbook and omni-channel solutions that provide players with constant access to sports and casino products across all online, mobile and retail channels. Supported by unrivaled expertise in trading and risk management, acquisition and CRM, and the highest standards of regulatory compliance, SBTech’s partners consistently achieve rapid growth, enhanced brand loyalty and record revenues." DraftKings prioritized OWNING their own backend technology via this merger with SBTech, making them the first, and only company in this space to own their risk and trading platform. This gives DraftKings a huge edge to the rest of the market. It forked up the cash to keep everything in house not only to provide a better customer experience, but also to widen the moat against competitors as new states come onboard. The key here is to clarify that DraftKings and SBTech combined to be the only player in the market with 100% vertical integration and control of their own backend. Jason Robins and the rest of the management team are placing their efforts on having the best technology and the best product and really going all in on owning the U.S. landscape opening up, with as little need for cross-platform interaction as possible. This acquisition of SBTech was a complete game changer because it allowed them to be independent from paying revenue share to a third-party for betting lines and risk management services. Clarification: no other sports betting/fantasy sports/casino company currently has 100% vertical integration on the level that DraftKings has established.
This is where the market is missing the mark. Take the time to read over analyst reports, news articles, and interviews and you'll quickly notice 99% of the general market is completely glazing over DraftKing's iGaming sector. This industry has been a CA$H COW in Europe for awhile now, and is only getting started in the United States. Out of the companies that occupy this space, DraftKings is the only one to create one synergistic platform for Fantasy sports/Sportsbook/iGaming. This will be a huge value proposition that will ultimately rocket DraftKings to the top of the gaming market and solidify it as THE gaming powerhouse moving forward. The infrastructure driving DraftKing's products and Tech (all in one platform) Anyone that's watched the run of Skillz and the hype pushing PaySafe, knows how much anticipation there is for iGaming to become the new norm in the world of gambling. DraftKings has emerged as the market leader in each state they've launched in, and continue to gain more and more market share. Once new users get introduced to their platform, the cross-selling opportunity is limitless and creates an extremely sticky customer acquisition cycle. Competitors like Penn and MGM are dinosaurs in this space and have been playing catch-up to DraftKings since 2012. The new age of gamblers don't want to drive to a physical casino location or buy a home desktop to gamble. Everything will be mobile and run in real-time. DraftKings has been building an incredible live-sports ecosystem (first to market) and innovates the possibilities of what you can bet on a daily basis. Just download the app for yourself and do some exploring. I believe this is going to boom in the TikTok/millennial crowd as more states start to hop onboard.
Pulled from the investor presentation, $DKNG has smashed every one of their 2020 assumptions listed below. For any stats guys out there, I would love to see some models at how much of this market is still up for grabs. DraftKings has positioned themselves to be at the head of this movement, and I believe that 2021 will be the year we really see them take off into triple digits share prices. The catalysts are there, and the market is ripe for the taking. Their projections are extremely conservative and management lets the numbers do the talking. In my opinion, this is a bet on the management putting the dots together to EXECUTE as state legislation starts to go their way, once NY happens this shift will occur rapidly. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1772757/000110465920032214/tm2012476d1_425.htm The management is incredible and truly displays a vision for wanting to prop up shareholder value in the long-term through valuable data, a fully integrated platform, and aggressive customer acquisition to take control of this market as states realize the economic deficits which they are facing going into a new year. This along with the unprecedented hype that is going to be involved with sports events this year, will skyrocket DraftKings to new heights. This is not a bet on sports betting alone, it is a play on a data-heavy and analytically driven behemoth, with strategic partnerships (league, team, and celebrity partnerships) and one of the most aggressive marketing strategies I have ever laid eyes on. The stock soared earlier this years upon news of the Michael Jordan partnership (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/investing/draftkings-michael-jordan-deal/index.html) and there is many, many more big moves in the pipeline.
Long-term I am extremely bullish on people wanting risk to make up a daily part of their lives. The psychology of sports betting resembles that of the lottery and is becoming a must-have for people to have the choice to place bets from the convenience of their mobile phones. We are moving into a future where if risk and leverage are not involved, people will have little interest in dedicating their time to things. This shift can be seen with the boom in retail options trading (shoutout wsb gang) and will have a similar effect in sports, iGaming, and random prop bets/surveys that Draft Kings is innovating heavily in. This is not to mention the infrastructure that DKNG is continuing to build out to rival that of Europe in terms of live sports betting (which makes up three quarters of revenue for online sports books in the UK) and expanding their horizons to lesser betted on sports such as tennis, golf, soccer, etc. If you've gotten this far, congrats you're just a few steps away from striking gold. Any feedback, comments, rebuttals, bear scenarios, etc. please comment. Good luck.
DraftKings has state legislation action coming, incredible management, is data-driven, is vertically integrated/owns its tech stack, has exposure to the full range of new world gaming (Fantasy/Sportsbook/iGaming), and is ahead of its competition forming league, team, and celebrity partnerships. $70c 1/21/22 $90c 1/20/23
Press briefings will be on Thursday from now on (exception of next week, which is Wednesday for Thanksgiving)
Good news: Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are 95% effective (data released Monday/Tuesday), RI will pilot Pfizer vaccine distribution - "there truly is light at the end of the tunnel"
Until the vaccine is available (hopefully some availability by the end of the year, anticipating widespread availability by Spring), we must double down on following restrictions so as to not overwhelm hospitals
See numbers above
'Targeted restrictions' have not helped the situation
Trending data is "alarming" - we have passed all three thresholds (5.9% weekly positivity, 247 hospital admissions, 535 cases per 100,000)
"I have tried to avoid a lockdown" - targeted restrictions are NOT working
"Severe restrictions" being laid out today
Intro - Rationale
With so much community spread, it's hard to pinpoint a single activity/location/group to trace source of infection
Patterns among people testing positive: At-home social gatherings, people going to restaurants/bars, people with others outside household
"Need to reduce mobility, reduce connectivity with people outside household"
"We know that schools are not major spreaders" I can already guess what's staying open...
High schools are more problematic than others
Path from now to end of the year
Current restrictions will be extended until the Sunday after Thanksgiving with two exceptions, effective immediately:
Social gathering limit is lowered to a single household (No social gatherings with people you don't live with)
All "big box stores" (>30,000 square ft) must have a plan for Black Friday crowds and cannot allow anyone without a mask cannot enter (stores should pass out masks)
Please do not travel
If planning to go to a restaurant, please use extreme caution
Stay at home with the people you live with
Rapid testing available at TF Green Airport Sat/Sun/Mon after Thanksgiving and Nat'l Guard to remind anyone who is returning from out-of-state to quarantine
Beginning 11/30 - "RI on Pause"
"Two week pause" in effect until 12/13
Hoping that this will ONLY be two weeks - if it does not work, total lockdown
High schools will shift to limited/hybrid plan after Thanksgiving at discretion of superintendents
Social gatherings limited to one household
Indoor dining at 33%, outdoor dining/takeout not affected
Retail at current capacity limits
Houses of worship limited to 25% capacity with a max of 125 I understand distancing but that's insanity
Colleges will have NO in-person instruction after Thanksgiving and will test all students before they leave campus for the holidays
All offices must move to remote work for everyone who can (521-HELP for technical assistance)
Bars (drinks can be delivered to tables but no bar areas open)
Bowling alleys, gyms, casinos
Indoor sports, gyms, group fitness classes, all sports except college/professional
Stimulus grants announced next week for affected businesses
Comments on "pause"
"This will only work if we do it" - threatening a full lockdown if this doesn't limit our numbers in 3 weeks
"I have been utterly ineffective in getting people to follow rules in their own homes" - jokes about memes showing her arriving at people's houses (one of the few candid moments I've seen from her lately)
Figuring out if it's working - reservation data at restaurants, test positivity, traffic data, enforcement data
Hospitals are currently at 97% of COVID beds filled - we do NOT want to ration beds/limit care
If COVID beds get filled, we may need to start cutting off other procedures incl. cancer screenings, important surgeries to make room for COVID patients
We are on track to need Cranston field hospital by week after Thanksgiving
Hospitals are working with colleges to hire medical students
There will still be greater restriction after 12/13, but cannot comment on exactly what as it depends on how this goes
Improvements to testing
2,000 daily asymptomatic tests added
300 daily symptomatic tests added
Expanding testing site at Wickford Junction
New site at McCoy opened today
New sites at Waldorf School and Stop & Shop in Greenville coming soon
Contact tracing is behind but we are continuing to hire more staff
Check results constantly and immediately isolate if positive (even if RIDOH has not called yet)
Increasing hotels available to people who need to isolate
Expanding food delivery services
Q: CDC saying that in-person learning is dangerous (I'm glad someone asked) A: "I believe that question is a mis-characterization of the data" - referencing Dr. Jha She sounds MAD about this question "we could argue about the risk, but children will suffer irreparable lifelong harm not being in school" She is trusting HS students to follow rules and "districts should keep kids in school if they can" Q: "Wasn't the idea with PPE/testing that we wouldn't have to go back? What happened?" A: "It turns out people don't follow rules very well when we have to do it for so long" Q: What is the goal in terms of ease of scheduling/getting test results and do we need to scale back asymptomatic testing? A: It isn't a perfect system (waiting to get tested) but we are working to fix it. "It's hard for me to believe you can't get a test at all" Personal note: I'm currently trying to get tested (possible exposure at work even though I have no symptoms) and I had to go online to CVS at 3:00 in the morning to get an appointment 3 days later Q: Isn't distance learning with a teacher better than in-person with a substitute? Is there a percentage (like NY) where we would switch to full distance? A: High schoolers work better with distance learning but younger kids really struggle. NY: We do not use a single metric to determine whether to shut down - "as long as schools can keep the environment safe" we will keep them open. Q: Thoughts on a possible 4-6 week lockdown or advisory to governors to do so under President Biden? A: "If congress would do their jobs" and send an appropriate stimulus, we could discuss a lockdown in RI Q: Why is Twin River open until 11/30? A: "If I could shut everything down immediately I would do that" but there is a need to be practical (restaurants who have increased inventory for next week will still be able to use it) Q: Crisis standards of care? A (Dr. Scott): Principles to help hospitals make difficult ethical decisions about care - we do NOT want to get here. (Gina): We cannot staff that many beds - patients may have medical students as nurses or not get checked on at all. We may have to "shut off" non-COVID procedures Q: Nursing home staffing (can people volunteer to bathe their family members, etc)? A: "Caregiver exemption" is in the works (allowing family to get certified to give care similar to CNA) Q: Is RI still independently validating vaccine data despite Pfizer pilot program? A: Yes. Q: Will you get vaccinated? A: I will not be first in line (not necessary), but yes. My apologies, I missed a few questions Q: General assembly? A: They will need to meet before 12/31 to pass a 2021 budget - a space is being set up at the Vets to allow a safe in-person meeting or they may choose to do so virtually Q: HS sports? A: Winter season cannot start until January - no practices at all during pause
[FIGHT THREAD] Jermell Charlo vs Jeison Rosario, Jermall Charlo vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko, Luis Nery vs Aaron Alameda, Brandon Figueroa vs Damien Vazquez, Danny Roman vs Juan Carlos Payano, John Riel Casimero vs Duke Micah + live round-by-round coverage
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2020 Time: 4:00 PM PT, 7:00 PM ET, 12:00 AM BT Location: Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut Television: Showtime PPV (US) Stream:Showtime (US) Fite TV (Non-US)
Jermell Charlo vs Jeison Rosario
WBC world super welterweight title
IBF world super welterweight title
WBA super world super welterweight title
33-1 (17 KOs)
20-1-1 (14 KOs)
Houston, TX 🇺🇸
Santo Domingo, DR 🇩🇴
4-1 (3 KOs)
5-0 (3 KOs)
Luis Nery vs Aaron Alameda
vacant WBC world super bantamweight title
30-0 (24 KOs)
25-0 (13 KOs)
Tijuana, MX 🇲🇽
Nogales, MX 🇲🇽
5-0 (5 KOs)
5-0 (3 KOs)
Danny Roman vs Juan Carlos Payano
eliminator for WBC super bantamweight
27-3-1 (10 KOs)
21-3 (9 KOs)
Los Angeles, CA 🇺🇸
La Vega, DR 🇩🇴
4-1 (1 KO)
3-2 (0 KOs)
Jermall Charlo vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko
WBC world middleweight title
30-0 (22 KOs)
13-2 (10 KOs)
Houston, TX 🇺🇸
Brooklyn, NY 🇺🇦
5-0 (2 KOs)
3-2 (2 KOs)
Brandon Figueroa vs Damien Vazquez
WBA world super bantamweight title
20-0-1 (15 KOs)
15-1-1 (8 KOs)
Weslaco, TX 🇺🇸
Thornton, CO 🇺🇸
4-0-1 (4 KOs)
3-1-1 (2 KOs)
John Riel Casimero vs Duke Micah
WBO world bantamweight title
29-4 (20 KOs)
24-0 (19 KOs)
Ormoc City, PHI 🇵🇭
Accra, GHA 🇬🇭
5-0 (5 KOs)
5-0 (2 KOs)
Live round-by-round coverage
Jermell Charlo vs Jeison Rosario
Charlo starts with a body jab. Rosario looks to be the bigger of the two. Very wide back. Charlo hard right to the body. Rosario measuring with his jab. Rosario down from a left hook to the temple. Charlo missed a big looping right and Rosario tried to coutner big and he ate a shot. Rosario not bothered, he's back putting pressure on Charlo. Hard body shot from Rosario. Charlo looks a little wild with his power shots. He's definitely looking to make a statement. Charlo with a quick pair of hooks.
Rosario lands a good jab. Both guys trade jabs. Heavy leather from both of these guys even with the jabs. Charlo lands a hard jab. Good left to the body, left upstairs for Charlo. Rosario nice pair of body shots. Charlo with a pair of nice hooks upstairs. Rosario nice right hand. Charlo looks like he is feeling that one. Uppercut from Rosario. Rosario ramping up the pace.
Rosario 10-9, 19-18 Charlo
Charlo jab to the body. Rosario jabs. Charlo slowing his workrate. Charlo tying up Rosario when he gets on the inside, not letting him work. Charlo scores with his jab. Rosario stalking, Charlo pops him with the jab. Rosario with a right and Charlo ties up. Charlo showing off some head movement. Rosario blocking very well.
Rosario 10-9, 28-28
Charlo pumping the jab. Both guys miss big right hands. Rosario with a pair of body shots. Charlo doing a lot of waiting and not letting his hands go. Rosario's right blocked. Charlo jab but he eats one. Rosario short little right. Charlo with a looping left hook. Rosario trying to cut the ring off on Charlo. Big left from Charlo and Rosario lands a right. Jab from Charlo. Very close round. Charlo effective with his jab and defending from Rosario. Rosario pressured but wasn't able to land much that stood out.
Charlo 10-9 (swing), 38-37 Charlo
Rosario nice jab and right sneaks in. Charlo left to the body. Charlo boxing off the back foot. He lands a very clean left hook. Jab scores for Rosario. 1-2 from Charlo. Rosario has to jump back. Rosario pops him with the jab. Another left hook counter from Charlo. Charlo eats a jab. Charlo starting to fall into a rhythm with his counter punching. Another close round.
Charlo 10-9 (swing), 48-46 Charlo
Good counter left from Charlo. Rosario came out aggressive and Charlo turned and countered. Charlo double jab. Rosario good jab. Rosario with yet another low blow. Hard jab from Charlo. Jab from Rosario connects. Charlo circling the ring. Hard right from Charlo, Rosario may have hurt Charlo as Charlo held. Good body work from Rosario. Charlo straighrt right. These guys throwing big shots and missing. Big left from Charlo and down goes Rosario to a knee. Rosario looks hurt. He'll be saved by the bell. Bad timing as Rosario was having a great round.
Charlo 10-8, 58-54 Charlo
Rosario comes out and continues to put the pressure. Rosario with a high guard. Charlo staying disciplined comes out and works his jab. They trade jabs. Rosario high guard walking forward. Again they trade jabs. Charlo looping right. Charlo jabs then goes to the body. Charlo jabs.
Charlo 10-9, 68-63 Charlo
A jab to the chin and body and down goes Rosario. He's down and he can't make the count. Jermell Charlo with a brutal body shot knockout!
Hi everyone! I am working non-stop provide the best research and analysis regarding DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG). I originally posted my overall investment thesis on the company a few weeks back and now I am breaking down and analyzing the latest news and developments regarding DKNG! And no, it is not the ticker symbol for Donkey Kong. DraftKings in my opinion, is the best pure play investment if you want some exposure to the sports betting, iGaming, and daily fantasy sports space. They're founder led (3 founders to be exact) and they're invested into the company themselves right alongside all of us shareholders or potential shareholders. Within the last week, there has been some exciting developments regarding DraftKings. I will share them below: DK Gift Cards Are Live! You can buy a DK gift card as a stocking stuffer for Christmas if you want. I’m really excited to hear this news. It’s only going to increase the brand awareness of DK and that’s what we want. According to the press release on DK’s investor relations website, they’ve partnered with InComm Payments to facilitate the launching of the gift cards. InComm payments is a global leading payments technology company that has a network of retailers that DK will be able to leverage through this partnership. Convenience stores like 7-Eleven, Speedway and Dollar General are just some of the many convenience stores in Incomm Payments’ network that DK will be able to leverage. For now, the gift cards will be offered in $50 and $25 denominations. The great thing about this to me is that they’ve beat their competitors to this. That shows managements initiative and ability to get things done which I complimented when I first picked this company. As of right now, you’re not going to be seeing any “FanDuel” (boo FanDuel *thumbs down emoji*) gift cards in the stores. Tim Richardson, the Senior Vice President at InComm Payments was quoted as saying “DraftKings will benefit from having its brand present in tens of thousands of Incomm Payments’ retail partner locations across the US”. Overall, good news for DK. New York State – Getting desperate? Do they need some online sports gambling revenue? I want to make this clear before I write about this topic – sports betting is already legal in New York state. The problem is, it’s only legal in brick and mortar (retail) locations. Just under a dozen upstate casinos can operate brick and mortar sports books at the moment. In typical DK fashion, they’re already active in a casino in New York State. DK offers in person brick and mortar sports betting through the Del Lago Resort Casino in Waterloo, NY. My news update I’m sharing is that it appears New York state might be considering expanding to online sports betting too due to a budget shortfall they’re experiencing (they need more tax revenue). This news came out on Wednesday, 12/16/20 during the day time. Governor Cuomo had a press conference during the day. The press conference was primarily focused on giving an update on the COVID-19 pandemic in New York state. During the presser, the topic of New York state’s budget shortfalls came up. As a possible financial solution, Cuomo said “Are there other ways to get revenue? How about marijuana? How about sports betting?” He’s referring to the possible tax revenue that could be collected if sports betting offerings were expanded beyond just the brick and mortar offerings. What if every New Yorker could place a sports wager from the comfort of their own home on their cell phone? The battle for legalizing online sports gambling in New York has been going on for years. Governor Cuomo has always been opposed to it. One of the reasons Gov. Cuomo has cited in the past is that he thinks a constitutional amendment would need to be made to New York state law to allow for mobile sports betting in the state. However, one state representative from New York that has been pushing hard for online sports gambling begs to differ. In response to Cuomo’s comments in the presser earlier that day, State Senator Joseph Addabbo said that there would be no constitutional problem with mobile sports betting because the servers could be placed on site of grandfathered in physical casinos. Addabo said that New York state’s need for revenue is “real and immediate” This is a situation to keep a close eye on. The impacts of legalizing mobile sports betting in NY would be substantial for DK as it would open the population of 20 million people in NY state the opportunity to place wagers on the DK Sportsbook app through the comfort of their home. I imagine it wouldn’t be too difficult for DK to mobilize once they get the green light for mobile betting as they already have the standing relationship with Del Lago Resort Casino for in person betting. The Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) granted DK a provisional license to conduct online gaming and sports betting in the state of Michigan For this update I also want to be clear – retail (brick and mortar) and mobile sports betting are already legal in the state of Michigan. It’s just that there’s a lot of yellow tape for Sportsbooks like DK to navigate within a state even after sports betting has become legalized. This provisional license provided by the MGCB was provided to DK and 14 other sportsbooks (including rival FanDuel) on Thursday, December 10th last week. Now there are just a few more regulatory requirements that DK has to meet in the state of Michigan before they can go live. According to http://www.michigan.gov, “Before launch happens, the platform providers must complete additional regulatory requirements including independent testing of platforms and games and MGCB approval of their internal controls, which ensure gaming integrity. The firms also must secure occupational licenses for certain employees.” You can read the full article on Michigan’s government website here. Knowing that DK has a knack for being quick to mobilize once they’re given opportunities in respective states, I fully expect them to pass these last few tests with flying colors. The DK Sportsbook app has already been available in the state of Michigan for “free to enter” games. Once they pass the last few requirements, actual wagers will be allowed to be placed. And money will be allowed to be made! Another promising sign coming out of the state of Michigan, is that on November 30th, 2020, DK became an official sports betting partner of the Detroit Pistons, the NBA basketball team in Michigan. DK Chief Business Officer, Ezra Kucharz, was on the record after the deal closed saying “As our first professional team activation in the state of Michigan, we are thrilled to join forces with the Detroit Pistons ahead of our pending market introduction”. In my opinion, I anticipate we’ll be seeing DK online sports betting in Michigan some time in early 2021. This concludes my update and analysis on DraftKings. TL:DR
Draftkings now offers gift cards and you can buy them in convenience stores (first sports betting company to do so)
DraftKings received a provisional license to conduct sports gambling in Michigan
Governor Cuomo of NY said he would consider legalizing "mobile sports betting" to raise additional tax revenue
If you would like to read my original deep dive and analysis on DKNG, you can check it out here:
Strategies for storing and laundering money to (try and) stay under the R* radar. [PSA]
There's no guaranteed method of not getting caught. You run risk no matter what. Just hoping this might reduce the risk and avoid wipes. Please dump any other good ideas you have for stashing money made through glitches. As a wise man once said; I’m pullin’ for ya, we’re all in this together. General Tips - What we know
Most vehicles return 60% of their value. Deluxos might be simplest as they're the highest dollar value overall. For storing large sums of money, this seems like the best option in terms of ease and scale. Sporadic reports on difficultly reselling these vehicles - Some people put a custom plate on them and others don't. Some aircraft can be sold, but not all. There are 18 aircraft models that are not Pegasus and require owning a hangar, selling them requires a hangar workshop. The Bombushka is the most expensive sellable vehicle in the game if you have not unlocked its trade price before buying it, and the hangar storage can hold 20 of them.
Casino chips present an alternative, but not great. You can buy $50k at a time with a cooldown period
Buy the things you want instead of holding cash.
Buy all businesses and upgrade fully if you actually want to "launder" the money.
A second account is nice for a whole lot of reasons, but it will not protect you in the event of an account or money wipe.
There's a lot of speculation around what works and what doesn't, here are some of the common tips that lack any real evidence. People have their own strategies and some suggest that the bans/wipes etc. are triggered by specific actions rather than the amount of cash in your bank, but again, nothing for sure.
No set bank account level for glitched money. Some say $100 mill, some more, some less. Less makes sense but nothing specific.
Lots of people report that they clear out all the glitch money from their banks and replace it with "legit money" from a quick mission or their safes. No evidence to say this is a sure thing, though. They can likely see all transactions, which would include glitch sources.
The general consensus suggests that money wipes are the typical punishment for "non-extreme" cases and account wipes are for "extreme" cases. There's no agreement on what the measure of this is - Some say $1 billion in cash is an "extreme", but again, pure speculation.
Some people have mentioned a cap of $1 billion in your total money earned Stats. Some have said $1 billion from glitching, or $1 billion total auto flags Rockstar. I can find no clear evidence of an auto flag system or any set amount that would flag it.
Trying to aggregate COVID-19 news into one resource. Share news stories and updates and we'll add them to the list. Comments have been set to sort by New for the foreseeable future (updated 4/24, 08:50): COVID-19 Cases confirmed
Open world mafia/mob game that doesn't take you on a murderous rampage like other similar titles!
https://preview.redd.it/uv4cy2dmrx461.png?width=1294&format=png&auto=webp&s=e36c3e3cf14515d6aecdf2c8f59b4e87d7626be0 https://www.indiedb.com/games/this-thing-of-ours What an amazing feeling to wake up and find out that your game has made it into the final 100 indieDB games final! We would, first of all, we would like to thank you all for the ongoing support that you have shown us. For the past 3 years, we have made tremendous progress with the build and an early access date insight of FEB 2021! With an end date in sight, the team is working harder than ever, we have now hired additional help as well to speed the process up. We are now close to the filming stages of our very first in-game trailer which we hope to release just after the New Year with early access being showcased at the same time on Steam. I thought in this blog we would expand more on where, when and how the side of the game and get some of your answered expanded on! So here are some of the most recent questions that: What are the most outrageous features you have in the game? Well... we feel that there are 3 outrages features in the game:
You will be able to visit brothels in the game and have uncensored interaction with its certain employees. If any of you are familiar with the "hot coffee" feature that a certain game offered you will know what we are on about on this one.
There will be a certain area in the game where you will be able to consume a certain white powder which will give you health benefits.
Since the game was in development this was always on our list to do. There will be a certain point in the game where you will need to dispose of a corpse and what a better mob way of doing it than actually cutting the body! We will expand on this in the next few months!
Hey niagara! After the community's warm response to my history posts here pertaining to Clifton Hill and the amusement industry, I thought I'd come to you all with some information I unearthed about a possible attraction lost to time. I hope now maybe your memories could again help fill some gaps in Niagara's rich amusement history. I was digging around in the Canadian Trademark Database and found the name of the company that Bob Dunham operated the House of Frankenstein and Castle Dracula locations under. For a quick recap, there was chain of six of these attractions across North America, the first and flagship location of both the House of Frankenstein and Castle Dracula being the Niagara locations. The company he ran these under was called Waxattract, and Niagara artist Derek Costello provided the art, figures and animation for these attractions as well as much more. In 1979, two years after the sixth and final location in the haunted house chain opened (Castle Dracula in Lake George, NY) Waxattract filed trademarks for "Jungleland Golf" and "Monsterland Golf". Both are listed as "For proposed use in Canada." Just a few months later both trademarks were abandoned. A year after that, Waxattract filed trademarks for a Jules Verne attraction with an animated dog barbershop quartet out front as well as an Arby's franchise. A few months later these trademarks were abandoned as well. For these attractions to have had names and characters trademarked, they must have been far enough into development that art, business plans and structural drawings were likely already partially developed. That's interesting enough, but the story doesn't end there. I tried googling these attractions to find old news articles announcing upcoming attractions or building permits, but found nothing with the exception of Jungleland. In a 2002 growth plan for the City of Niagara Falls, a section discusses the construction of the parking garage for Fallsview Casino. It reads: "To accommodate parking in the event of a closure of the Allandale parking lot at the discretion of the City of Niagara Falls and/or the Jungleland parking lot." Adding fuel to the mystery, Jungleland Golf is the only of the above trademarks transferred to a new owner and renewed after being abandoned by Waxattract. Its transferred to an Herbert W. Cowan in 1980 and not inactivated until 1996. I can't find anything on Jungleland Golf on the internet. No brochures, merchandise, postcards, photos or references outside of the 2002 growth plan. It's possible for this reason that the municipal parking lot referenced in the 2002 plan was simply the land that was proposed for Jungleland once upon the time, still being referred to as such by the city despite the attraction never being built, even under the trademark's new owner. It's also possible however that this municipal lot referenced was called such by the city because it used to be the land Jungleland sat on, and that this Herbert Cowan ran the attraction from 1980 to 1996 as the records indicate. Adding merit to the theory the attraction existed is the fact that there is a municipal lot about 100ft from the Fallsview Parking garage at the corner of Main and Fallsview. That would have been directly across the street from the Boris Karloff Wax Museum, which was in the parking lot of the Oakes Hotel. This is significant because as I'm sure you guessed, The Boris Karloff Wax Museum was run by Bob Dunham/Waxattact. In fact, this too was recently unearthed due to a telegram auctioned off online. The telegram was sending condolences to Boris Karloff's wife after the actor's death in 1969 and was sent from Robert (Bob) Dunham of the Boris Karloff Wax Museum. Since the museum opened roughly a year before this, it seems like he owned it from the beginning, making it both Dunham's first attraction and likely Derek Costello's, pre-dating the House of Frankenstein by a year. If he owned an attraction directly across the street from the possible location of Jungleland, it makes sense he would develop more on empty land there after all the space on Clifton Hill was used up. After heavy digging, I found 2 aerial shots of that area from the early 90s. What's now the municipal lot indeed has a tree filled area with some small structures around it. The photos are not clear at all being taking from the Skylon tower, and one was taken in the dead of winter under a good 3 feet of snow. This makes it impossible to make out any text, logos or even evidence of a mini golf, but whatever is there looks like it couldn't be much else. Does anyone remember this? It's not to be confused with Jungle Putt on Lundy's Ln. near Typhoon Lagoon, the 80s-era mini golf/arcade/Dairy Queen that was abandoned in early 2010s and eventually burnt. Jungleland would have been near the Seagram/Minolta Tower, specifically directly across from the Oakes Hotel and there between roughly 1980-1996, if it existed. Anybody remember anything?
[Mod Post] Looking to spread cheer? These care homes have residents who'd be grateful for some mail during lockdown!
The RAoC Mod Team hopes you're staying safe and healthy during these trying times. Many nursing homes, assisted living facilities, group homes, and similar locations are now on lockdown. This increased isolation can be very hard on residents. We're seeing more card requests here and around the internet, so we've decided to compile a list, and we need your help!
We've got 2 tasks we're asking for your help with:
Send some cheer and support in the form of cards to some of the places on the list! Some tips for content & addressing cards are in the pinned comment below the post.
Check out the social media of or contact a local nursing/assisted living/group/etc. home and ask if they would like to be on the list to receive cards! Get permission to publicly share the address, then fill out our form so we can add it to the list! You'll need a. the name of the place, b. the mailing address, and c. the name and contact information for who gave permission (this will be kept private)orthe link to their request on social media.
You're also welcome to put more than one card per envelope to save on postage! Check your country's weight limits per stamp, but then feel free to load them on up to send the most cheer possible!
Places to send cards:
Note, list is not ordered by name or country, but by most recently added to our list. That way, the most recently added are easily found. Check back regularly! Countries are now bolded for visibility.
Skylark Assisted Living
Skylark Assisted Living 900 Skylark Place Ashland, OR 97520 USA
More Info: 100 Residents in assisted living and memory care ranging in age from 59-104!
ATTN: Therese Cards for Residents 1370 Victory Dr. South Euclid OH 44121 USA
The Reserve At North Dallas
c/o Jan Hacke for RAoC The Reserve At North Dallas 12271 Coit Road 2404 Dallas Texas 75251 USA
Extra Info: A RAoC member lives here and wants to share the joy of random happy mail with her fellow residents. The facility has been on lock down since March 12 and will remain on full lock down for the foreseeable future because many residents have additional susceptibility beyond just age. Some live independently, others are in assisted care. However, all are restricted to their rooms, most alone for nearly 23 hours per day. Note: On the outside of the envelope, please write "RAoC" and if there is more than 1 card inside.
Zearing Health Care Center 404 E Garfield St Zearing IA, 50278 USA
Extra info: Good morning all! If you or your kids need something to do our residents would love some mail. They are really missing contact with the outside world. Anything would be greatly appreciated. Thank you so much for your continued thoughts, everyone here is happy, just missing family and friends!!!
Thompson House Rehabilitation and Nursing Center
Thompson House Rehabilitation and Nursing Center 80 Maple Street Brattleboro VT 05301 USA
Extra info: Thank You so much! Any corospondance or card will make the world of difference in the lives of the Thompson House residences and will be greeted with appreciation and joy.
Esplanade Senior Living at Palisades
The Esplanade 640 Oak Tree Rd. Palisades, NY 10964 USA
Extra info: Not only can't they have outside visitors, but they're being quarantined to their own apartments, so cards would be very appreciated.
Oak Creek Terrace Nursing and Rehabilitation
Oak Creek Terrace Nursing and Rehabilitation 2316 Springmill Rd. Kettering, OH 45440 USA
Brighton Gardens of Raleigh
C/O Activities Director Brighton Gardens of Raleigh 3101 Duraleigh Rd Raleigh NC 27612 USA
Extra info: A Sunrise Senior Assisted Living with a section for Memory Care, called Reminiscence. There are about 110 residents, and they'd love some cards! They were very excited that we reached out with an offer to add them to this list!
Silver Linings Personal Care Home
Silver Linings PCH 407 Harvey Street Stapleton, GA 30823 USA
Extra info: We are a small assisted living facility for seniors and house 11 residents.
Wyoming Veteran Veterans Home of Wyoming 700 Veterans Lane Buffalo, WY 82834 USA
Extra info: This home provides food, shelter, and assisted living care to any Wyoming Veteran that needs it, free of charge. They're on lock down and can't leave or have visitors. Many of these Veterans do not have family or friends, so a card could/can help lift their spirits!
Stadtresidenz im Casino Wetzlar Bewohner der Junge Pflege Kalsmuntstrasse 68-74 35578 Wetzlar Germany
Extra info: This is a facility for young people with disabilities. Many of the residents do not understand why their family can't come visit anymore, so any sort of care and outreach would be greatly appreciated!
Jenner Court: McCarthy & Stone Assisted Living
Retirement Community Jenner Court: McCarthy & Stone St George's Rd Cheltenham GL50 3ER United Kingdom
Extra Info: Elderly residents who are around 80+ years old. Some of whom have mobility issues or are technologically illiterate, so they wouldn't know how to use social media. The residents very much enjoy playing Rummikub everyday, but due to social distancing, they can't really play anymore. They are no longer allowed visitors, but are still accepting packages, so snail mail communication would brighten them up.
Park House Residential Care Home Martinstown Dorchester Dorset DT2 9JN UK
Extra info: They provide care for patients with a variety of needs, and are primarily a dementia care home. All you need to do is pick a room number (1 to 21 - no number 13) and send your card to the above address! They say "If you would like a letter or card back from one of our residents, please feel free to include your name and address."
Does anyone else think this is pure insanity how it’s gone up 60% since they did the recent stock and debt offering at $18 per share? If PENN had a clue this would happen they never would have done the offering last week. Their own CEO said they have enough cash on hand now to make it through the year with their burn rate of $83m per month. What he failed to mention, and what is written in their 10-K and 10-Q, is that the $83m burn rate is them operating with only a core of 850 employees, all locations closed, and almost no operating expenses when they typically employ around 25,000. Once casinos open up, with social distancing, they should expect half or less of their usual revenue with leaving every other seat empty. Plus 50% of their revenue comes from the northeast (NJ/NY etc) which will be the last to open! Even if their expenses are also somehow cut in half (even though it’s more likely they’ll be around 75% because of costs not tied to employee salaries) they’ll still be spending significantly more than the “$83m per month” that he was touting. There is no way they make it 6 months without either doing another huge offering of stock and debt OR selling more of their properties to GLPI. Either way the value goes down. Realistically a fair value for them now is $15 per share at best.
The Capitalist Fallacy at the Core of the Claim that NY Pays More in Federal Taxes than it Gets Back
It is impossible to discuss politics on Reddit without a mainstream team blue Democrat bringing up the idea that blue states pay more in Federal taxes than they receive in Federal revenue, and that therefore the points made by those in Red States are meaningless. Which is true, depending how you massage the figures. But it ignores where all that tax revenue they are bragging about comes from. New York State is basically the NYC metro area stapled onto an upstate area the size and makeup of West Virginia. NYC is what makes it a blue state, NYC is what makes it a rich net payor state. In any given year in NYC, the securities industry amounts to around 22% of wages paid with an average salary of $360,000. Add to that much of the service sectors, healthcare sectors, fashion industry, etc, that exists in NYC primarily to service these securities industry finance Bro desires; and the real estate industry that pushes prices ever higher thanks to those finance bro salaries (though admittedly that would be too much effort to quantify). Do the math and it becomes obvious: NYC is rich because it's the location of the national casino, drawing capital from the countryside to be swapped, bought, sold, lost and moved around like poker chips; and the house always gets its cut. New Yorkers declaring that they don't need the rest of you freeloaders is no different from the boss and the accountant at a company declaring that since they make more money at the company than the workers, they are more talented and more important and don't need the workers at all. Tldr: New York pays more in taxes because of an economic system dependent on the finance industry, which produces little to no human happiness.
Crazy prediction: COVID-19 will seriously hurt the US standing in the Global Economy
So we know that the American response to COVID-19 has been bad. Competing for the Darwin awards bad. The only first world countries that have a higher per-capita infection rate are Spain, Belgium and Iceland, all of which have a significantly fewer new cases per day today compared to their peak infection rate. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (Click on the countries to the left to see how many new cases are reported compared to the peak) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html (Change view to per capita cases) Evidence of the continued spread in the USA can be seen in the rising of cases outside of NY. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-cases-united-states.html This also takes into account the testing rate, since new deaths are dropping in NY, yet the rest of the countries total deaths remains nearly constant. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html (scroll down to reported deaths). vs https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html (scroll down to reported deaths). Since there is a lag in data, about 1-2 weeks for new detected cases and 4 weeks for deaths, it means that the non-NY social distancing measures between ~4/10-4/24 were insufficient to control the spread of the virus. With the loosening of state restrictions, it means the R0 number today will be higher than it was in the two weeks of 4/10-4/24, meaning there will be more new infections per day outside of NYC in 1-2 weeks then there are today. So, what does this mean? The US may "flatten" the curve, but not control the spread of the virus. In other words, the virus will continue to spread for the foreseeable future in an uncontrolled fashion (with an R0 value very close to 1 meaning daily new cases/death counts remain mostly the same). That doesn't necessarily mean there will be another spike in infections (although that is possible). Why is this? Well, here are the key differences between the USA and (most) other first world countries
Lack national contact tracing program
Insufficient testing - especially for rural communities
Insufficient PPE for hospitals and essential workers
Lack of national quarantine plan
A desire by a minority (~5-10% of the population - anti-vaxxers and the like) to ignore most safety recommendations (masks, no visiting family, etc) - and no repercussions if safety recommendations are ignored
Reopening Super-spreader locations (Churches, factories, and salons) where spread can continue even with
A refusal by top leadership (Trump Administration) to coordinate an international response - Reduces the ability of countries to coordinate responses such as short term travel bans to hotspots, share PPE, share ventilators, share information, etc.
A refusal of top leadership (Trump Administration) to coordinate an national response - Reduces state-by-state differences and leverages the best scientists to create a baseline plan for the country.
Growing partisanship about the response creating a lack of a response (mostly noticeable in mask wearing). This increases the spread as many anti-vaxxer types see wearing a mask/social distancing as a "liberal" issue rather than a "national" issue, meaning the virus spreads more.
There are a lot of big economies (France, Germany, China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Australia, Switzerland, Spain, Netherlands, and Turkey) that have reduced the number of new infections to controllable levels. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (Click on the country in the left pane and click on the daily cases in the bottom right window). Since the new infection rate is low, that means if they determine a person is infected, they can perform contact tracing on that person, determine who they were in close contact with, and then quarantine everybody who they were in close contact with. This can reduce the number of new infections by a significant amount (I'm guessing reducing the likelihood of another infection by 75% - bringing the R0 value down significantly below 1) without social distancing efforts. There is no indication that the US will have any of this type of capability for at least 3 months. Probably closer to 6. The issue being a lack of national leadership. States may implement this, but many slow states such as Florida, Georgia, North Dakota, Kansas may not have the resources or political will to get something like this going quickly. Okay, so what does all this mean for businesses and stocks and investments. If you live in one of these countries where new infection rate are low with contact tracing, you are free to go out and spend money without worrying about getting infected. Higher confidence = higher spending. Additionally, these countries are going to be looking to fully re-open their economies (football games, bars, casinos, etc). With that, they'll be stuck between two options. One, keep their economy open to the US and risk a new outbreak (and thus the economic hit) or close their economy to the US and take the economic hit until the US gets the virus under control. Essentially, a travel ban of people traveling from the US (and other countries that don't have the virus under control - Russia, Canada, UK, etc in that list) could be possible. Another affect of this, which is more important for us, if the US has an uncontrolled spread of the virus, that means factories will be shut down at random (as an outbreak occurs in a factory) in the US for a period of 3-6 months where other country's factories are humming along. With a reduced demand rate, that creates a huge competitive advantage for other countries to provide reliable supply. That means that buyers of products will look for alternative supplies outside of US. This means that big businesses such as GM, BA, F, GE, etc lose long-term market share to competitors in other countries. This can hit other places such as entertainment where no new US movies are produced, and no US sports are produced. To me, this points to not just a slow L shaped recovery. It means that the GDP of the USA will be lower in 2021-22 than it was in 2019. Other countries (Japan, China, South Korea) could see a full recovery by the beginning of 2021. Tell me I'm wrong. I really want to know if I'm completely off base here.
If you’re new to Coronavirus research, start here…
Feb 19, 2020, updated periodically...Unfortunately there’s not just one link you can use to get an estimate of the real numbers of infected, or of the seriousness of this outbreak, and you will have to do some digging of your own. But here are a few points to consider and research for yourself:
Name. The names 2019-nCoV, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, and novel coronavirus all basically refer to the same thing, either the new virus or the disease it causes. (The WHO calls the virus SARS-COV-2, and the illness COVID-19.)
Family. It is a type of SARS but is much worse than SARs; experts have also called it "worse than Ebola" in terms of how fast it is spreading.
Re-infection. Getting sick with it more than once is a possibility; "recovered" patients may even be contagious or test positive for the virus after so-called "recovery." Link
Spreading without symptoms. People are able to be asymptomatic or presymptomatic, but still contagious, for weeks. Studies have shown that an infected person may be shedding virus for weeks after "recovery."
Ineffective quarantines. Quarantines are being done for 14 days in many countries, even though it has been documented that 38 days would be more effective. The word quarantine comes from the Italian quarantina giorni, a space of 40 days. We need to get smarter about how long people are quarantined.
When Did It Start? By Nov 2019, officials had briefed the US White House on a virus that was sweeping through Wuhan, China. Link
Fast-spreading. Between 2/19/20 and 5/1/20, cases grew from 1000 to over 3 million. Many countries do not have the capability to adequately test people. For instance it could become very widespread in parts of Africa without ever making the news.
Symptoms and Treatment. There is no cure; treatment focuses on the symptoms like the cough and fever. The symptom list is long and varies from patient to patient but the majority of them have cough and fever and the serious cases develop pneumonia, which is what kills them. Secondary infections are also common, and those patients get antibiotics, but, antibiotics don't do anything against a virus; they are used solely to treat additional complications. The symptom list seems to be ever-changing: a March 7 report showed that 22% of patients had diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and/or abdominal discomfort before respiratory symptoms (another report said it was about 50%). One first-person account said that a rash was her only symptom. CNN aired an interview with US nurses on the frontline who said that in some cases the only symptom prior to death was that the tissue around the eyes turned red (not the eyes, but the face area around the eyes).
No vaccine. Labs around the world are racing to develop a vaccine but that is, at best, months away; some say a vaccine may be impossible due to how the virus tricks the body into making more virus. And keep in mind there was a SARS outbreak nearly 20 years ago and we still don't have a vaccine for that.
Lives on surfaces. Many redditors have asked about whether it is safe to accept packages from China. Studies have shown that the virus can survive on surfaces for at least 9 days under certain conditions, and up to 27 days in other conditions.
"Do I have it?" Many redditors have posted questions saying they feel ill and want to know if they have it. If you think you have it, call a doctor or hospital; reddit is not the place for a diagnosis. The hospital will want you to wear a mask when you come in, and will want you to call ahead so they can isolate you from other patients.
"How do I avoid it?" Many redditors have asked what they can do to avoid catching or spreading the virus. Standard virus protocol applies: avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue then throw the tissue in the trash; frequently wash your hands (especially after going to the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing) using soap and water as hot as you can stand it for at least 30 seconds (the scrubbing under running water is important; a 5-second fingertip wash is inadequate); carry hand sanitizer gel with you for times when you can't wash your hands; avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth especially in public; disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a household cleaning spray; etc. The US has recommended against all travel to China [update: against all international travel]. Some redditors started avoiding air travel, public transportation, and large crowds and gatherings at the end of January 2020.
Other reasons why we don't believe the official numbers
Information Warfare. In the earliest days of the revelations about the virus, a deliberate disinformation campaign was started, to get people to believe two major falsehoods: 1) “It’s not as bad as the flu,” and 2) “Everything is under control and will be back to normal soon.” You will see this repeated thousands of times around reddit, other social media, and in mainstream media in the US and elsewhere. Even US doctors are repeating this propaganda, almost verbatim, to any news reporter who asks. Read more about China's 10 million influence agents at Link
Naysayers. Historically unprecedented efforts have been made to downplay the virus - often by focusing on the supposedly low fatality rate, or the supposed recovery rate. It's far too early to know what "recovery" actually means. For instance, scientists from Nanjing Medical University and Suzhou Hospital have said males who "recover" may be infertile. There is also well-founded concern about permanent lung damage, and possible chronic joint/muscle pain which could be debilitating and lifelong.
Pre-determined case rate. In early Feb 2020, someone demonstrated that the rise in cases was very predictable from day to day; the data curve was "beautiful" in that it was flawless and perfect, unlike the real world. He was able to predict, a day in advance, with astonishing accuracy, how many new cases would be announced by China the following day. The implication was that the data only moved like that because it was pre-determined before it happened; in other words the real numbers were released in a slow trickle in order to manage the public's reaction.
Under-reporting. There are indications, including first-hand reports from doctors, that the "official" numbers of confirmed dead are grossly under-reported. Link
Estimates. In Jan. 2020, some people were thinking the infected number was over 150,000 (back when China was saying it was under 10,000). It's hard to get a reliable number, but there are clues pointing to a worrisome amount of cases. Researcher models have shown estimates of a multiplier for a realistic number that range from x4 to x35. In other words if China is announcing 75,000 cases today, some people are concerned that the real number (including those who are undiagnosed) is 528,000 up to an almost inconceivable 4.6 million. [Update: Less than 2 months later, the "official" number worldwide exceeds 3 million; if x35 holds true...I don't like that answer...]
Suspected vs. Confirmed. China also has a data set for "suspected cases," which may include people who have presented to the hospital (or to several hospitals, seeking care) with the symptoms but who were unable to get diagnosed because the hospitals were overwhelmed. Some observers consider "suspected" cases should be considered "confirmed" until there has been a negative diagnosis.
Crematorium Info. Investigative journalism in China has led to recordings of phone conversations with crematorium workers, who are desperately asking for help because they are going 24/7 and are still backed up in Hubei from the amount of dead to incinerate (imagine California and half of Texas not being able to keep up with the bodies). The employee states the number of bodies has been 4 to 5 times the usual, starting ever since Dec. 29.
Portable Crematoriums? Lu Media reported that 40 units officially described as "cabins for the disposal of garbage and animal carcasses" have aided Wuhan in the epidemic area; their capacity is 5 tons per day. Professor Ming Ju of National Taiwan University believes that these cabins are "mobile incinerators" used to process human corpses. (To expand on that: 5 tons is 10,000 pounds or 4,536 kilos. Using a rough average weight of 62 kg per adult, that's 73 adults per day, per machine, so 40 machines are capable of handling 2,920 adults per day. That's in addition to the numerous regular crematoriums which can process a dozen or more people simultaneously.) That is all speculation; it is also likely that a city on lockdown would have an enormous problem getting rid of household refuse and medical waste, in which case those mobile incinerators would come in handy for that, too.
Cell phone Subscriber Decreases. Jennifer Zeng reported a combined net loss of 15 million subscribers to three of the large cell phone companies in China, in Jan and Feb 2020 alone. Link
"Not as bad as the flu" nonsense. From Jan to March 2020, mainstream media (MSM) and social media were chock full of people conducting information warfare; their goal was to perpetuate the “official” myth that coronavirus is not as serious as the flu, and that everything will be back to normal soon. There are several other virus-related subs on reddit which are moderated by people who do not allow any dissenting views, and who only permit people to post things that have already been announced by a government. In March 2020, the US CDC Tweeted that the fatality rate of this virus is at least three times that of the flu.
CNY. Chinese New Year is a major travel holiday when people go home to spend time with their families; it is often the only time of year when migrant workers get to see their loved ones. Millions and millions of Chinese people were on the move when this outbreak began.
Ineffective City Quarantines. China announced each city lockdown up to a day or two in advance, which gave infected people plenty of time to try to flee. After Wuhan was locked down, it was announced that some 5 million people had left before it started. Many of the people trapped in Wuhan were just caught there during their New Year's travels.
Constant number manipulation. China has changed how they count cases, and has advised that if a person has tested positive for the virus but is asymptomatic (has no symptoms) then they should not be added to the list of confirmed cases.
Practically no testing in the US. In the US, the vast majority of citizens (99.99999+%) can't get tested. The CDC policy has changed several times but even now, unless you have symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization or have had close contact with a CDC-confirmed case, testing is not available for most Americans. [Update: As of 5/1/20, the US has tested approximately 2% of its population, and has over 1 million cases.]
"Self-quarantines." The US relies on self-quarantines. On 2/19/20, WSJ reported "Public health officials in the U.S. are striving to keep tabs on thousands of Americans who have quarantined themselves at home after returning from mainland China..."
States hiding data. Some states, notably Florida, were initially claiming that they couldn't legally disclose how many people have been tested. "According to the Tampa Bay Times, “state Surgeon General Scott Rivkees said the Florida Department of Health is not authorized to publish the number of people in the state being tested for the virus out of privacy concerns.” US health privacy laws contain an obvious and necessary exemption for cases that involve public health crises.
Hacked Accounts Spread Reassuring Deception. Redditors are posting that they have been getting bizarre texts from close friends and family members in China saying "situation is under control" and "we're all fine" etc. Others posted screenshots of messages from several business contacts in China who all repeated an official message practically verbatim: "Impact limited to Wuhan...Everything is under control...will be back to normal soon...thank you for your concern."
Body bags. Rumors are circulating that China has ordered 1 million body bags, and shifted factories to body bag production; someone also posted an online industrial buyer order in which someone was looking to purchase 45 million virus masks.
Monitoring. China announced a few days ago that they are "monitoring" close to half a million people who have had "close contact" with infected people. Monitoring efforts involve self-reporting plus tracking of movements based on cell phone geolocation, A.I., facial recognition technology, and mandatory checkpoints.
What leaked videos and social media posts have shown us has happened in China
Dropping Dead. There are a handful of videos that show people seeming to suddenly collapse, notably a police officer walking down the street, in social media posts circulating on Feb 19, 2020. Videos show people dead and dying in hospital waiting rooms. Other videos show dead bodies laying on the sidewalk; a young woman collapsed in a vegetable market, etc. These spread in China in Jan.; in Feb. we saw similar vids from Iran. On 2/20/20, Harry Chen PhD posted a man laying face-down in a Hong Kong mall, the implication being that he collapsed from the virus or virus-related complications.
Unprecedented Censorship Efforts. Videos get deleted almost as fast as they get posted. One leaked video shows uniformed internet police pounding on someone's door, demanding that they delete their social media post, and also that they immediately must post a retraction to apologize for spreading "rumors" or otherwise they will face legal consequences for harming social order.
Voices from Inside Hospitals. Voicemails and texts from Chinese nurses and medical workers urging their loved ones, "Do not go outside" and saying that they are totally overwhelmed with infected patients. Numerous nurses collapsing into hysterics, unable to cope with the requirement to work 22 hours a day, and the inability to leave the hospital; some have been threatened with having their medical license revoked if they walk away.
Dirty masks. Used surgical masks being resold: an old man on the sidewalk selling used surgical masks of various colors from an open box. Another video recorded surreptitiously shows a team of people inside a shop with a big pile of used surgical masks, which are being sorted, flattened, and folded. The video ended with a view of a big stack of boxes; the implication was that used masks were being repackaged for sale as new. The brand name was not legible but it featured a woman's face on the cover, and Chinese writing on the box.
Quarantine Evasions. City quarantines don't work. Videos show people climbing over head-height barricades and fences built across roads and bridges, family members handing their children across the fence, and arguments in the street when someone is discovered to have Hubei province license plates or to be speaking with a Wuhan accent.
Doors welded shut. People are being welded into their apartments in Wuhan. Some apartment buildings have had their entrances sealed, once multiple people inside are believed to have the disease. Videos showed a middle-aged, non-athletic woman attempting to scale the outside of the building by going from balcony to balcony, and she fell to her death. A small town road labeled as the "Road to Lihua" which shows a street full of residential buildings, and every single building is barricaded from the outside, thus trapping the uninfected inside with the infected and the dead.
Mobs. So-called "recovered" patients being attacked and beat up for returning to their village after being released from quarantine.
Sprayers. Numerous videos show fleets of trucks rolling through streets in China, spraying what we suppose to be some sort of disinfectant, as though there was a need to clean the sidewalks or even the air itself. China has used water sprayers for at least five years to combat pollution, but speculation is that these trucks contain some sort of chemical rather than water.
Birds. A highway shot shows hundreds of crows perched on a concrete barrier; the subtitles claim that thousands of crows have been attracted to Wuhan by the stench of death.
Checkpoints. Villages and small towns enforcing quarantines with weapons, punches, slaps, etc. A car stops at a checkpoint, hesitates, then seems to intentionally plow into a medical tent.
Arrests. Patrols of white hazmat suit workers looking for people who went outside without a mask; they get arrested and carried away.
Packed hospitals. Hospital hallways jam-packed with people standing around waiting to get tested; shoulder-to-shoulder crowding conditions, which surely served to spread the virus faster.
Pets Killed. Village patrols beating dogs to death with a stick supposedly in order to "prevent the spread of the virus," and household pets thrown down from tall apartment buildings for the same reason.
Bodies. Multiple body bags in hospital ambulances, on the floors of hospitals, and in the hallway. (Similar videos surfaced from Iran and Brazil in March 2020.)
Transportation issues. That there were enough dead at a given time that no one could respond promptly to carry away the bodies.
Paid by the body. A citizen journalist secretly records an impromptu job interview at a local crematorium, where he is told he will not be paid unless he brings in bodies to cremate. They offer 500 RMB for one body, and 200 RMB for each additional body, up to 1100 RMB a load if he can bring in 4 bodies at a time.
Failures at life-saving efforts. A man's voicemail (identified by name as a doctor, if the accompanying image is to be believed) stating that for patients who are intubated (receiving oxygen via a tube shoved down their throats), extubation (removing the tube) is rarely successful - the patients die when taken off oxygen.
Panic buying. Fights over groceries, and rice flying off the cart before the grocery store can even put it on the shelves.
Refugees. Social media video posted Feb 19, 2020 claims to show hundreds of people with suitcases and baggage fleeing over the Chinese border from Guangxi province into Vietnam. Like most other videos claiming to be about this situation, there are many responses claiming this one is fake.
Fights. A child stabbing an elderly person and another child, during a fight over a small bottle of antiseptic.
Intentional Spreading. There are videos showing various suspects who are going around intentionally spitting on things, in an apparent effort to spread the virus. Tissue boxes are provided on elevators so that a person can use the tissue to press the button, and keep their fingers clean. Videos show a family riding the elevator, and a male takes a tissue and spits on it repeatedly, then smears all of the buttons with his spit. Another video shows an older woman alone in a different elevator; she repeatedly hacks and spits intentionally all over the buttons and the inner doors of the elevator, and then after a younger woman gets on and presses an elevator button, the older woman cackles to herself. Another video shows a young woman going down the street spitting on the door handles of cars. Another video shows a young woman sneaking around an apartment complex at night, spitting on doorknobs. Many Western viewers are unable to make sense of these videos, or conceive of a thought process that would make a person want to do this.
Attacks on medical workers. Patients in hospitals pulling down their virus masks and intentionally spitting into the faces of medical workers and receptionists - multiple incidents in multiple locations.
Arson? I have yet to actually see one of the alleged "arson" videos because they get deleted (for "inappropriate content") shortly after they are shared, but there are rumors of one or more videos showing buildings being intentionally set on fire in China, with people still alive inside the buildings. People are working hard to call these fakes, saying it emerged in early January and there is no proof that it is linked to the virus; however, since the videos immediately get flagged and deleted, discussion and debunking it for yourself is nearly impossible. On that note, if you see a video and believe it will be deleted, there are ways you can archive it (to a different website) so that others can see it later.
Failed donation efforts. Food trucks sent to Wuhan are not allowed past the city's barricades, and the food goes to waste.
Resistance. In Xiaogan, Hubei, the villagers did not want to be sealed up inside their homes, and they fought back. The police fired shots.
What else is happening in China
Pop-up Hospitals. In response to the outbreak, a pop-up hospital was built in China in about 10 days. It leaks.
Non-Hospitals. China has also opened “quarantine shelters” which do not provide medical care; observers are calling these deathatoriums, where people are supposed to just go and wait to die. However, if someone lives with a big family and has nowhere else to go, this may be a humane way to help the person have shelter without risking infecting their loved ones. Once a person goes in, they are not allowed to leave.
H2H and A2H. Human-to-animal-to-human transmission appears possible: It was reported by a UK tabloid on Feb 21, 2020 that hundreds of pets have dropped dead in China; although that source is questionable, the 2002 SARs outbreak led to research that household pets such as cats and ferrets could be infected by SARS-CoV which they caught from a human, and then could spread the disease to other humans (back in 2002).
Historic Firsts. Wartime policies are in place. China has locked down three entire provinces (Hubei, Liaoning, Jiangxi), all four centrally-administered municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing) and more than 80 other major cities. Some estimate that nearly 800 million Chinese (9.8% of the population of the entire planet) are under some type of quarantine, lockdown, and/or movement restrictions. A bit of logic often repeated on reddit is "You don't do that for the flu."
Cages. People are being dragged kicking and screaming off the street into truck cages, because a spot-check of their forehead temperature revealed they had a fever.
Press Censorship. Reporters are going silent and China revoked the press credentials of 3 WSJ reporters.
Robots. In Wuhan robots (think "gonk droid" not "C3PO") and drones are being used to enforce the quarantine, ordering people not to leave their homes, even for food.
Information Control. Chinese whistleblowers are reportedly disappearing or suddenly being diagnosed as infected, hours after posting revealing information.
Claims of People Being Burned Alive. Taiwan News - and no other sources as far as I can find - is reporting alleged first-hand accounts of people who claim they saw people being burned alive in Wuhan, the alive bound up with corpses and dragged off together.
Doctors Sickened. Chinese medical professionals (around 1800) are getting infected despite safety procedures, and some are dying from the infection (notably the director of a hospital in Wuhan). Usually doctors and nurses aren’t too worried about getting ill from their patients due to their safety measures, which indicates that covid-19 is much more infectious than the usual flu strains.
Irony. A high-level government health official emphatically stressed to reporters that the virus is preventable and controllable, a few days before he himself was diagnosed with the virus.
24/7 Lockdowns. People in Wuhan no longer being let out of their homes once every 7 days, and are on 24/7 lockdown.
Propaganda Videos. In the early days there were quite a few propaganda videos showing happy, smiling shoppers in grocery stores that were fully stocked. There were very light crowds - lighter than usual even - and no shortages of food in these videos, despite the leaked videos showing empty vegetable bins, huge meat bins with only one pack of meat left, and violent fights between shoppers trying to get their hands on a sack of rice.
Positivity Efforts. There have also been propaganda vids showing infected patients dancing and doing exercise; this is all part of the order from on high to keep the message "positive" and ensure that nothing but pure "positivity" covers all virus news.
"Moving Deeds" Efforts. Propaganda efforts have been directed toward promoting the effects of control measures and the “moving deeds” of volunteers, community workers, and the police. They have also posted some 400,000 comments online to counter negative public opinions.
Barring Investigators. China wouldn't let any WHO Americans into the country until recently, but they are still being prevented from going to Hubei and Beijing.
Movement Restrictions. Drones carry QR codes at the entrances to cities; drivers must use their cell phone to scan the QR code, and then the system will analyze the phone's recent movements, then decide whether to allow the person into the city.
Medical situation propaganda. While leaked videos show overwhelmed, crying medical staff in packed hospitals, there are also some propaganda videos showing empty hospital corridors and calm, smiling, laughing, relaxed doctors; one claim being circulated is that some of those were filmed with actors hired to portray doctors.
New medical crime laws. On Feb 8, 2020 China’s National Health Commission announced seven types of "medical-related" crimes, stating that prosecution will be swift and they will not rule out the death penalty for these crimes, which, in plain English, are basically: 1) Don't injure medical workers, 2) Let medical workers go wherever they say they need to go, 3) Don't pull down your mask and spit in the face of medical workers, 4) Cooperate with mandatory health checks and quarantines and don't disrupt anyone trying to burn bodies, 5) Don't stay in a hospital if you've been told to leave, and funerals are banned, 6) Don't carry weapons into a hospital, and 7) Anything else they decide is illegal is also illegal.
Swift cremations. Funerals in Hubei are banned; the deceased are immediately cremated and the family is notified afterwards. If the deceased did not have a coronavirus diagnosis before death, the body will never be tested and the case will never be added to the official numbers.
Longterm Health Implications. The US government has just announced that "recovered" COVID-19 survivors are permanently disqualified from military service. This speaks volumes about what the government knows about what this virus is and what it does. Link
Death Rate. The fatality rate is still an unknown; many people blindly repeat “2%” although we have not had enough cases outside of China, for long enough, to know the real number. Professor Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College of London has published a paper estimating Hubei province will see an 18% fatality rate. That’s one of five people out of 11 million; which means this professor is projecting roughly 2 million deaths in Hubei province alone. The same professor says that it is not absurd to anticipate we’ll have 400,000 infected in the UK. Early numbers from Italy are over 30% but of course it's still way early to know.
False Negatives. We don't know how many people have it and were tested negative, because there have been experiments where current test kits have failed to detect the virus until the 5th or 6th time tested.
Airborne? Reports from inside China have repeatedly referred to the virus as "airborne." This gets shouted down on social media as soon as it is repeated, with anonymous "experts" trying to convince you and everyone else reading that you simply don't know what "airborne" means, and trying to switch the focus to droplet contamination by sneezes and coughs. People in China, and certain parts of South Korea, Vietnam, and Italy have been warned specifically not to go outside.
Source of virus. The "official" source, which somehow was known and announced since the very early days, was a so-called "wet market" or "seafood market." In reality these markets are infamous for butchering and selling the meat of snakes, bats, rats, cats, dogs, badgers, civets, raccoon dogs, and other exotic mammals for human consumption. CNN reports from years ago documented dogs and cats in cages, waiting for butchering. The propaganda description is that the markets just sell seafood and birds. Sanitary practices in such markets consist of rinsing off surfaces with plain water periodically, and using the same knife to cut multiple species of animals, and the same knife to cut meat and then intestines and then meat again. The possibilities for illness and infection from such meat sources is obvious, and the official story is that this virus somehow jumped from bats (or some say from pangolins) to humans.
Virus Lab. The original source of the virus has been the subject of great debate. It has been reported as starting in Wuhan, which happens to have Asia's only Level 4 Biosafety Laboratory. Some Chinese researchers were indicted for taking virus samples from Canada to China, and, the head of a Canadian virus lab was also indicted for being on the payroll of China and accepting $50,000 a month payment from them. Draw your own conclusions.
HIV Proteins. Some research indicates that the virus shares four proteins with HIV, and bears certain genetic markers only found on genetically modified organisms. Those scientists were quickly silenced with criticism; most seem to believe the criticism. Regardless, numerous articles have claimed it somehow acts like HIV.
What's happening outside of China
Lockdowns. The entire countries of Italy, Spain, and India's entire 1.3 billion people are locked down. The US and UK are on some sort of half-ass "voluntary" thing, told to "stay home if you can" while many people ignore it.
Cruise Ship. The Diamond Princess cruise ship (quarantined near Japan) which some observers on reddit said would be a good test case for a real world model outside of China, has shown an alarming increase in the numbers of infected.
Suppression of Info. Google is believed to be suppressing virus news. Try the search engine that doesn't track you, https://duckduckgo.com
Macau. Macau closed its casinos. This would be like Las Vegas deciding to hang up a "Sorry, we're closed" sign for a few weeks.
Ukraine. Ukraine - civil unrest, riots, road blockades to protest quarantining and transportation of patients into the area.
South Korea. South Korea reported a surge of new cases on Feb 19, 2020, linked to an infected person attending a church service; 31 new cases were diagnosed. The growth in South Korea, in a matter of days, has been mind-blowing (In 13 days, the case count in South Korea has grown from 82 to over 5,300 cases). South Korea may have been a good predictor for what growth in the US will look like, except so far, South Korea is testing 2,000 out of every million of its citizens, while the US is only testing 1 out of a million.
Self-isolation. South Korea, Vietnam, and Iran are asking millions of people to stay at home, to contain the spread. In one city in South Korea the mayor has asked people to wear their viral masks even indoors at home.
Iran. While Iran is officially reporting 3 deaths as of Feb 21, 2020, a social media post says it's 20; that the virus can live on surfaces for 2 weeks, can transfer from animals, can reinfect after initial infection, and testing is 30%-50% accurate, with many false negatives and asymptomatic transmission, plus mutations of the virus. Other "leak" sources say there are 300 positive diagnoses in Iran. Just like we saw happen in China, a government official who urged the public not to overact about coronavirus has now tested positive for the illness himself. Within a couple of weeks of Iran's first case, multiple senior politicians had died (Mar 3, 2020). On Mar 12, satellite imagery revealed mass burial pits in Iran.
Dirty masks. Leaked video shows several women in head coverings who are sitting on the floor sorting through what appears to be thousands of used surgical masks - the implication being that these will be resold; the narration does not sound Chinese; the videographer holds up an example mask very close to the phone, to show that it is definitely used and soiled.
Travel to/from China. The US had up to 200,000 citizens in China at the time of the outbreak. As of mid-March, the US unbelievably still has daily flights from China. Canada still has unrestricted air transportation with China. Meanwhile, other countries have closed their borders to Chinese citizens and to anyone who has been to China recently.
Evacuations. The US has arranged multiple evacuation flights to bring Americans home from China. Some on reddit are concerned that this will only spread the infection faster, and would have preferred that anyone in China be left there. The US has spread these evacuees around at least three states, and enforces a “voluntary” quarantine of 14 days.
Quarantine Stations. For years the US CDC (Centers for Disease Control) has had 19 quarantine stations on military bases ready for just such an outbreak. American evacuees are currently being held at some of those.
Emergency Declarations. The US city of San Diego, California declared a "public health emergency" on Feb 14, 2020. As of March 7 these states have also declared a state of emergency: NY, FL, KY, PN, MD, UT, IN, CA, & WA. On Mar 14, Pres. Trump declared a national emergency and public schools in 12 states announced closures ranging from a few days up to 30 days.
Weak control measures in the US. In the US, hundreds of people are being "monitored" (sent home and told to call if they get a fever or cough) but are not being tested. These people may be contagious. Link
National Guard Mobilization in Tallahassee, Florida, US? A social media post claims to show a small fleet of what appears to be military vehicles, police officers, and ordinary trucks hauling large white trailers; the captions claim the vehicles are Chemical, Biological, and Radiological response units. Two large earth-moving/digging vehicles are in the fleet.
Spitting. US social media indicates Seattle patients are spitting on the clinic walls and floor.
People dropping dead. Social media posts from Iran (Feb 25, 2020) are showing us the same things we saw on social media in Hong Kong and on the leaked videos from China: various, random people just suddenly collapsed / dropped dead in the street. One theory being circulated is that the virus may cause heart failure, particularly during the patient's re-infection (or second time with the virus).
Supply Chain and Economic Impacts
Mask shortages. Chinese buyers are scouring the world to locate companies that can sell them viral masks in bulk. Many redditors have posted that they ordered masks online, but then got notified that their order was canceled or on back-order. In the US, as of mid-February most cities still have masks on the shelves at local stores; though many stores have imposed quantity restrictions such as 10 per customer. In states where the CDC has announced confirmed cases, people are having trouble finding masks anywhere.
Panic buying. Singapore has imposed limits on how much groceries and supplies a person can buy. Hong Kong has had panic-buying of household goods and groceries, with many rumors that ordinary things (such as toilet paper, which Hong Kong gets from mainland China) could go out of stock and stay out of stock for an unknown period of time. In the US we get our toilet paper from US companies; there is no reason to hoard toilet paper in the US! As of Feb 29 and Mar 1, panic buying appears to be happening in Hawaii, Oregon, California, and multiple locations in the US. As of Mar 13, panic buying has spread to many areas of the US. At this point if you failed to prepare, you should consider looking carefully at your own pantry and fridge, rather than going out and risking being in a panic buying crowd.
Global Crash. Economic damage in China and around the world is difficult to contemplate. Billions have already been lost. China produces about 17% of global GDP.
Cars and car parts. Some car makers have shut down plants temporarily and some may have to find alternative sources for components (such as plastics and wires etc.) before they can resume operations, unless this virus magically disappears by the end of February.
International Shipping. Some cargo ships are leaving Asia at 5% capacity (95% empty) and will not be able to continue to operate like that.
"Made in China." Experts are projecting shortages and disruptions in the global supply chain in general, affecting countless products either "made in China" or made with ingredients or parts sourced in China, including but certainly not limited to computers, electronics, auto parts, chemicals, medical equipment, machinery, telecom hardware, apparel and footwear, home goods, batteries, smartphones, and notably, pharmaceuticals (over-the-counter and prescription drugs), just to name a few examples. Even if a product is advertised as being made in your country, there's a good chance it contains Chinese components or ingredients or is at the very least being sold in a plastic container that was made in China. Industries are looking at options for finding other countries to become suppliers, so we can diversify the supply chain and avoid keeping all our eggs in one basket, though such measures could prove to be too little, much too late at this point.
There’s much more that can be posted here, but that's enough topics to get you started on your own research. I really doubt this is going to be disappearing in a month or two. If any readers have a source or video link etc., or additional points they you'd like me to add, just reply to this message, or send me a private message if you prefer. Thanks for reading!
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